There is no business as usual when modelling climate change – Phil Goodwin – transportxtra
We live in a disequilibrium world, where chaos is always close and business as usual an illusion. Model-based assessments are under challenge, says Phil Goodwin. In these circumstances, the roles of scrutiny and challenge are supremely important
Embedded in decades of transport modelling is the assumption that the future will be sufficiently like the past that any relationships observed (or thought to be observed), were stable enough to use as a guide to the future, and reliable enough to support decisions, with a few modest caveats. This philosophical starting point underpinned the rationale for the key transport models used to forecast future movement and support major projects. Brexit, Covid19, and climate change all challenge the credibility of that view.
